European Recovery Fund Analysis Reveals Disappointing Impact on GDP: AIRef Unveils New Tool for Evaluation

On Wednesday, the Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority (AIReF) unveiled a new tool to analyze the impact of European funds associated with the Recovery Plan on the economy. The data shows that only 18.9 billion euros of these funds have contributed to the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), representing 24% of the total subsidies allocated. This amount has been executed in terms of National Accounting, which AIReF believes is the most accurate reflection of the funds that have reached the real economy.

Subsidies and tenders totaling 32,052 million euros have been resolved, but only 18,900 million euros have had a macroeconomic and budgetary impact. AIReF states that both figures are relevant, with the National Accounting figure providing a more accurate representation of actual execution, including investment as it is being carried out. However, the resolution figure is also significant as it reflects the economic activity that occurs once a tender is signed.

The impact on GDP from these funds has been primarily through investment, although it is still below pre-pandemic levels. The Government’s updated execution figure is 35,190 million euros, with AIReF assuming that the remaining funds will be executed by 2026. While AIReF acknowledges challenges as the deadline approaches, for now, they include all funds in their scenario. AIReF emphasizes the importance of timely execution to ensure optimal economic impact.

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