On Monday, U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase as investors weighed the economic outlook and the possibility of an end to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hiking cycle. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by less than one basis point to 4.9151%, up from the 4.379% low it briefly touched on Friday. Meanwhile, at 3:31 a.m. ET, the 2-year Treasury yield was over three basis points higher at 4.4764%, indicating that investors are starting to see a shift in the economy’s direction and are looking for hints about what might happen next with interest rates.
It is important to note that yields and prices move in opposite directions, and a basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Investors have been considering the economic outlook and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, with growing hope that the central bank is done hiking rates after both the producer and consumer price index came in lower than expected last week, suggesting that inflation is easing and the Fed’s interest rate hikes are having their desired effect of cooling down the economy.
With December being when the Fed is set to meet again, expectations are for interest rates to remain unchanged. However, many investors are pondering when the Fed will begin cutting rates, something that Fed officials have not addressed in detail yet but could change based on recent economic data such as this month’s release of minutes from their last meeting which could provide more insight into their considerations and expectations for future moves with interest rates.
Bond markets will have a shortened week as they will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and close early on Friday.