Iran’s Nuclear Dilemma: Will a Severe Threat from Israel Push the Country to Acquire Nuclear Weapons?

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has emphasized that Iran may need to adjust its nuclear doctrine if Israel poses a severe threat to the country’s survival. During a recent statement, Kamal Kharazi, Adviser to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, explained that Iran has not yet decided to develop nuclear weapons. However, this stance may change in response to an existential threat.

General Ahmad Hajtalab of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who oversees nuclear development in Iran, acknowledged the potential need for a reassessment of Iran’s nuclear doctrine if Israel were to attack its nuclear facilities. Analysts suggest that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons and could become a nuclear power in the near future if it decides to pursue this path. However, ultimately, it is up to Khamenei to make the final decision.

In April 2024, Iran launched its first independent attack on Israel, deploying numerous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. While most of these weapons were intercepted and destroyed by Israeli defenses, reports from Western media outlets suggested that Israel responded with a limited strike aimed at demonstrating force rather than causing significant harm to Iran. The incident underscores ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel and highlights their potential impact on Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

The possibility of war between Iran and Israel remains uncertain as tensions continue to escalate in the Middle East region. As such, any changes or adjustments made by either country will have far-reaching consequences not only for themselves but also for neighboring countries and global stability.