Positive Trends in Global Trade for 2024: The First Half of the Year Looks Promising, But Challenges and Risks Remain

Good news for global trade! The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has reported positive trends in the first half of 2024. In the first quarter, goods trade increased by 1%, while services trade grew by 1.5% on an annual basis. If these trends continue, global trade in 2024 is projected to reach nearly $32 trillion.

However, it’s important to note that this growth may not exceed the record level set in 2022. Developing countries, particularly China, India, and the United States, saw increased exports in the first quarter of 2024, while Europe and Africa did not experience any growth in exports.

UNCTAD highlighted that green energy sectors and artificial intelligence products are in high demand compared to other sectors. Despite potential challenges such as geopolitical issues and industrial policies reshaping trade patterns, the organization remains optimistic about global trade in 2024.

Inflation has remained positive but below 2% in the first half of 2024. Improving economic growth prospects and moderating global inflation indicate a positive outlook for global trade in 2024. However, ongoing negative developments such as geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging industrial policies could pose risks to global trade.

Additionally, there may be a possibility of interest rate cuts later this year in the United States, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting global trade even further. While there are some risks involved with external factors such as these interest rate cuts or geopolitical tensions, UNCTAD is optimistic about the overall outlook for global trade in 2024.