The Rise and Threat of Electric Cars: VTT Predicts Rapid Growth but Government Initiatives Could Halter Progress

The Finnish Technology Research Center (VTT) has predicted that in ten years, electric cars will drive half of the kilometers driven by passenger cars. This growth is expected to be rapid, based on recent scenarios by VTT. The share of electric cars in kilometers driven has been increasing faster than anticipated, with over two percent in 2022 and expected to reach half in ten years.

However, specialist researcher Marko Paakkinen believes that government initiatives could be destructive to this development. Two measures, although saving a little, could cause a significant loss in terms of inhibiting the growth of electric cars.

VTT’s scenarios are based on measures introduced to reduce traffic emissions, such as promoting the use of renewable fuels. The electrification of vehicles has been promoted through subsidies and increasing fossil fuel prices, but these are no longer included in the government’s current plans.

Paakkinen highlights two crucial forms of support that are now at stake: tax advantages for company electric cars and subsidies for charging points in housing associations. These measures have been effective in increasing the number of electric cars and reducing emissions.

Despite potential uncertainties in the market, such as interest rate increases and household financial situations, Paakkinen remains optimistic about the future of electric cars. He believes that the market will rebound as European manufacturers offer more affordable options.

While an increase in electric cars could significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars, heavy vehicles still rely on fossil-based fuels. To meet emission reduction targets in heavy traffic, additional measures would be needed as electric fuels made from green hydrogen and carbon dioxide are currently more expensive to produce than fossil fuels.