As a journalist, I have rewritten the article to provide a fresh perspective:
The US economy may be facing a recession, as indicated by QI Research CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth. Booth argues that a recession was triggered in October 2023 based on one unemployment indicator. She has been skeptical of soft landing talk and used indicators developed by Goldman Sachs to support her argument.
Recent data has continued to paint a bleak picture of the labor market, with April’s job report delivering fresh weaknesses. Nonfarm payrolls added significantly below estimates, and unemployment ticked up slightly to 3.9%. Booth noted an acceleration of job cut announcements, with analysts projecting rising recession risk and a potential hard landing by the end of the year.
One significant change in severance packages is worth noting – there has been a drop from six to nine-month packages offered in 2023 to 60 to 90 days currently. With job losses on the rise and recession risks looming, the US economy faces challenges that could further impact the labor market.
Booth highlighted major pickups in job cuts in May, pointing to significant job loss announcements. She used indicators developed by Goldman Sachs to support her argument that a recession was triggered in October of last year based on labor revisions through the third quarter of 2023.
Overall, it seems that the US economy may already be experiencing a recession, with rising job losses and downside labor revisions being key indicators. The recent data suggests that this trend is likely to continue, with analysts projecting rising recession risk and a potential hard landing by the end of the year.